Carl Crawford’s stock is at an all-time low, and that could be a good thing for you.
With our pitching sleepers out of the way, it’s time to detail a few batsmen who might be worth your time and attention if you haven’t drafted for your fantasy league yet. And if you have, some of these guys may still be available as free agents or via trade. While bargains seem to be more easily found in the hurling department, that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of worthy hitters out there who could surprise in 2013.
As is customary around these parts (StanGraphs, I mean; we’re all in different regions and this isn’t a John Wayne movie–yet), I’d better include my usual disclaimer. Not every guy on the list below is a breakout candidate buried under waves of more famous players. Many of them may be deep sleepers, but there are also names on this list who we feel qualify as sleepers simply because they are bound to be undervalued in drafts this season. Even if a player is well-known, he can be a sleeper simply based on the fact that he is likely to fall further in the draft order or in auction price than he probably should when all factors are considered. So buckle up if you’re in your car (quit reading about baseball while you drive!) and get ready for some hot, sticky fantasy baseball action!
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
Ackley’s nice run after his initial call-up in 2011 made him look like the sort of patient, line drive smacking machine that could be a fantasy force at second base. A more complete look in 2012 made him look like he wasn’t even ready to play at the major league level, not even for the offensively-bankrupt Mariners. Hopefully Ackley can deliver at a level in between that in 2013, and even if he doesn’t he should hit double digits in homers and steals.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego
It doesn’t generally pay to draft first basemen with no power, but Alonso could be a steal in the late rounds. He has the line drive swing that could lead to a high batting average, and the altering of Petco’s fences could lead to a few extra homers and a few less doubles along the way.
Norichika Aoki, OF, Milwaukee
Not thought to be an impact import when the Brewers signed him on the cheap, Aoki showed he has a bit of pop and a lot of speed in his 2012 debut. He didn’t show any wear and tear in the season’s second half, and the Brewers turned him loose for 24 stolen base attempts after the break. The fact that he was successful 19 times bodes well.
Alex Avila, C, Detroit
Alex Avila asserted himself as one of the best fantasy (and real-life) catchers in the game in 2011, hitting .295/.389/.506 with 19 homers. Injuries robbed Avila of both playing time and power last season, but the 26-year-old has a very good chance to get himself back in all of our good graces in 2013.
Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles (AL)
Shortstop is an incredibly thin position, and you could do a lot worse than Erick Aybar. Aybar probably has the least name recognition on the star-studded Angels, but he has shown he can hit for average, possibly top double digits in the home run department, and steal 20-30 bases. That’s nice production considering you won’t ever have to reach to get him.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco
Brandon Belt has always had every tool necessary to become a very good offensive first baseman, but Bruce Bochy‘s stubborn refusal to play anyone who isn’t old enough to run for the presidency has gotten in his way. If Belt gets a real shot, he could clear 20 homers and hit for average at an increasingly weak first base position without costing you much of anything.
Lance Berkman, 1B/DH, Texas
Hampered with his usual myriad of injuries in 2012, Berkman really only showed that he still had the whole plate discipline thing at his disposal. Any loss of power will be adequately masked by the Ballpark at Arlington, so Berkman still stands to be productive so long as he doesn’t spontaneously combust or retire out of disgust that the Astros are in the American League.
Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland
Brantley won’t ever become a star, but his very solid 2012 showed a player capable of high contact rates and a resulting high batting average. If he gets his breaks, he could hit .300 and toss in 15 steals to boot. What’s the deal with boots? I mean I guess I understand them in a practical sense, but when they’re worn in public simply to convey the “I’m a cowboy” message, I don’t get it. (I live in Missouri.)
Melky Cabrera, OF, Toronto
Plenty of people will be concerned that Melky Cabrera will fall apart now that he doesn’t have “performance-enhancers” to fall back on. Plenty of smarter people will worry about his BABIP regressing to something resembling normal levels. Most likely, Cabrera will have a fine season in which he can offer you 15-15 production and a solid batting average.
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City
I put Lorenzo Cain on this list a year ago only to see him hurt his baby making region and hip, thus limiting him to less than half a season’s worth of time with the Royals. Cain is a lot like Brantley in that he’ll never ascend to stardom, but the tools are there for double digit figures in both home runs and stolen bases.
Matt Carpenter, IF, St. Louis
The Cardinals have no shortage of injury risks (Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig come to mind), and Matt Carpenter may be a starter almost every day anyway. Carpenter can handle all four corners plus second base, so he could gain you eligibility all over the place while adding a little bit of average and sporadic power to your lineup. If you’re in an OBP league he looks a lot better.
Chris Carter, 1B/DH, Houston
Chris Carter still hasn’t accumulated much when it comes to major league time, and that’s probably because he’s been maddeningly inconsistent when he’s been up with the A’s. Now with Houston after the Jed Lowrie trade, Carter should get every chance to prove himself. He slugged 16 homers in 260 PA last season, and he could easily pass the 30 homer mark in a full season for next to nothing.
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland
We may have jumped the gun by putting Chisenhall on this list last spring, but the Indians seem to know their place well enough to give him a full shot in 2013. Chisenhall could struggle to hit for average, but third base is pretty weak and 20 homers from him could more than make up the difference.
Carl Crawford, OF, Los Angeles (NL)
Everyone’s about ready to give up on Carl Crawford after all of the injuries, underperformance, and non-resistance to aging, and can you blame them? Still, though, a healthy Crawford has it in him to hit 10-15 homers and steal 20-30 bases. There’s still a ton of value to be found in him if he plays, as he’ll surely slip very far down the rankings list.
Travis D’Arnaud, C, New York (NL)
The Mets picked up d’Arnaud in the R.A. Dickey trade, and there’s a very good chance he gets to take over catching duties at some point in 2013 despite initially getting assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas. He’s hit at every level, and at 24, it’s time he got a chance to prove himself at the highest one.
Ike Davis, 1B, New York (NL)
Look at all these Mets! Ike Davis turned heads when he hit a career-best 32 home runs in 2012, but he did so in spite of a terrible line otherwise. Davis has legitimate power, and his .255/.346/.542 second half line is a good indicator of the player he can be. Expect the power to remain and the batting average to rise to an acceptable level given his slugging ability.
Alejandro De Aza, OF, Chicago (AL)
It’s hard to take De Aza seriously given that he just now got a shot at age 28, but his minor league numbers foreshadowed the possibility that he was a solid player. De Aza could easily once again hit a few homers and steal plenty of bases thanks to all the skepticism that surrounds him.
Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City
Elvis Andrus is a better baseball player than Alcides Escobar, but why he gets so much more attention in the fantasy realm is beyond me. Escobar has grown into the sort of shortstop who can make his speed work for him, and we’re believers that he can continue to hit for the reasonable average he did last season while stealing bases at a very high success rate (he was 35/40 in 2012).
Todd Frazier, IB/3B, Cincinnati
It’s always good to have a player who you can depend on to shift around to multiple positions, and Frazier fits that bill. Even more importantly, he ought to provide assistance in every category not related to speed, and he may even get better despite his relatively late ascension to major league status. On top of qualifying at both first and third, Frazier may also be able to slot into the outfield for some of you.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona
Before last season, I sort of assumed Goldschmidt’s big draw was going to be his mammoth power. While the Arizona first baseman did club 20 homers in 587 PA, he added value by stealing 18 bases and hitting for average along the way. This multi-dimensional version of Goldschmidt makes for a much more valuable fantasy player, especially if his power continues to develop.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles (NL)
It was a rough year for Adrian Gonzalez, and he didn’t do himself any favors by completely forgoing his previously wonderful approach at the plate for swinging at everything. While it’s doubtful the 30-year-old will revert to his old ways of being incredible, expect an uptick in production that boosts him back into the general area of the best fantasy first basemen out there.
Anthony Gose, OF, Toronto
The Blue Jays are pretty full when it comes to outfielders, but injuries or missteps could give top prospect Anthony Gose a chance to shine. While Gose’s bat may take some time to develop, his legs won’t. Barring some sort of foot movement strike or debilitating injury, Gose could chip in with some serious steals if he gets a chance to play this season.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego
A possible Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, Gyorko figures to take over second base for the Padres and possibly earn third base eligibility as well. Now 24, Gyorko lit up Triple-A in 2012 to the tune of a .328/.380/.588 line and 24 homers. Unlike many middle infield options, Gyorko does his damage with the bat instead of his legs, and he could start punishing pitchers with an array of line drives and occasional taters from opening day on. I love saying taters, and I’m not going to stop.
It’s time to care about a non-Headley Padre hitter.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore
Shortstop is a notoriously tough position to fill, and often it seems like you have to reach above a player’s talent level in a draft to avoid punting the position altogether. Hardy offers an alternative. No one ever cares to draft him unless they have to, but why take an unknown quantity when Hardy will at least offer you 20 or more home runs at a position they rarely come from?
Eric Hosmer, IB, Kansas City
I have absolutely no idea what’s wrong with Eric Hosmer. If I did, I’m pretty sure I’d have a job I greatly enjoyed. The only thing I can guarantee is that this surely has nothing to do with his contact prescription this time around. I also have no idea whether or not Hosmer will correct his issues at the plate, but if he does, the talent is there for him to become a premier player. If his stock has slipped enough in your league, he could very well be worth a look.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto
A lot of people reached to grab Brett Lawrie early last season after the explosive raking he did near 2011′s end. Lawrie responded by floundering a bit at the plate and getting all sorts of shit for accidentally bouncing a helmet into an umpire. Lawrie didn’t mean to hit that umpire with a helmet, and he does mean to have a better 2013. It wouldn’t be shocking if he put up 20 homers and 20 steals this season.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy missed much of the 2012 season after getting sucker punched by a suitcase, but he was tearing things up beforehand. Lucroy’s .881 OPS and 12 home runs before the injury weren’t completely out of nowhere–he actually enjoyed a respectable 2011 as well. If he avoids luggage, he could be a steal at the catcher position.
Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego
While he remains valuable for his defensive mastery in center field, we shouldn’t forget that Maybin also has a chance to be useful to fantasy players as well. Maybin is still an effective base stealer who could reach 40 again if he’s on base enough, and he hit .283 after the All-Star break. That’s oversimplifying things a bit, but the bottom line is that Maybin should be able to quit striking out so often and use his speed to up that average.
Cameron Maybin’s bat has some life in it. You gotta believe us!
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota
Small victories were the only ones Morneau accomplished in 2012, and there are no guarantees he ever approaches anything close to his MVP peak again. Still, in his walk year Morneau represents an interesting sleeper candidate. I have no evidence to give you suggesting that a re-breakout is probable or even possible, but if it was ever going to happen, his value sure is low right now.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City
So far, Mike Moustakas has shown us he can play a mean third base and pop a homer here and there. Moustakas has a much higher ceiling than that, and a more patient approach could mean a more complete offensive game that makes him a star.
Derek Norris, C, Oakland
It was and up-and-down cup of coffee for Derek Norris in 2012, one that was occasionally spiked with vinegar and cat pee. Fortunately, Norris has always had the ability to get on base, and the power he keeps flashing could help him develop into a rather nice fantasy catcher.
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City
When he’s been healthy, Salvador Perez has done nothing but hit. He doesn’t walk much, but in 463 career MLB plate appearances, he’s hit .311/.339/.471 with 14 homers. And he’s a catcher, one of the most repugnant forms of offensive baseball player there is. Get him late and you could be amply rewarded for it.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago (NL)
The Padres made the dumb decision to give up on Rizzo in exchange for the admittedly nasty (but probably ultimately bullpen bound) Andrew Cashner, and he’s already making his old team pay. Rizzo held his own in his first extended chunk of at-bats, and things are only going to get better from here. He has all the tools to be one of the handful of best first baseman in his league, and that ascent is already in progress.
Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Colorado
He’s not a future star or anything, but Josh Rutledge could help out a lot of fantasy teams. The Colorado middle infielder offers above-average power for his position that will only be enhanced by Coors Field’s ridiculous tendencies, and he’s also a good bet to reach double digits in the stolen base department. Now that’s value late in a draft!
Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cleveland
We are long-term members of the Carlos Santana fan club, and the breakout we predicted for 2012 didn’t quite happen. Still, Santana’s fine batting eye and big power foretell great things, and once his injuries cleared up he mashed like the star we hang upon him so frequently. Here’s the second half line that gives you an idea of how good he really is: .281/.389/.498, 13 HR in 314 PA.
Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle
Once a somewhat big name prospect, Saunders opened up a can of baseball spinach and starting going deep in 2012. While he has his limitations in the real world, Saunders shouldn’t have trouble finding playing time with a Mariners team that recently called the Indians asking if Willie Mays Hays was available. Should the power stick around–and a change in approach suggests it will–Saunders is a 15/15 or 20/20 threat that will only be a batting average liability.
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle
Another Mariner? Are we drunk or something? Not at the moment, but we can see why you’d think so. Seager, like his teammate Saunders, has the chance to offer a 20/20 season to you, and he’s a third baseman. He probably won’t ever hit for much average or show much in the way of plate discipline, but let’s not get greedy or anything.
Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee
The best prospect acquired by the Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal, Segura is known primarily as an excellent defender who plays an especially key position. The tools are there for his work at the plate to become more distinguished, and while that may not happen at age 23, he could start helping a fantasy team in batting average and especially stolen bases right away.
Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis
Universally regarded as one of the best two or three prospects in the game, Taveras has famously been compared to Vladimir Guerrero because of his ability to square up just about any pitch and drive it. He’s not on the Cardinals’ opening day roster, as there currently isn’t room for him and he hasn’t experienced Triple-A Memphis just yet. Still, this is a roster with Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig on it, so the odds of Taveras getting called up at some point are far from slim.
Brian Vaughan, Author, StanGraphs
I’m a sleeper in a bit of a different sense, but I thought I would let you guys know about it anyway. Here in a few minutes, after I have this post up, I’m totally going to go to bed. At that point I’ll be asleep, and that technically makes me a sleeper. I promise I won’t disappoint if you draft me in a napping league.
Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland
Jemile Weeks was downright awful in 2012, putting up a .221/.305/.304 line that surely resulted in plenty of gasps and fainting in the bay area. Weeks has talent, though, and the guy who capably hit for average and stole all sorts of bases in 2011 could return with even more to offer at a moment’s notice. Well, he won’t really give us notice per se, but you get the idea.
Jayson Werth, OF, Washington
Werth will never put up the numbers he did as a Phillie thanks to his new ballpark, but he’s still a very good player. When not suffering broken bones in 2012, he reminded us that he’s still a fine hitter. The version we saw was one with much less power and much more contact, and it’s hard to know what to make of that. Many owners are scared of him, so if you wait and grab him late you could end up on the winning end of a proposition that includes double digit homer and steal totals and maybe even a nice batting average bump.
